Project record
PUBLIC LOCATION
Western North America / modeled range
01
Question + scope
Whitebark pine occupies a narrow and changing climatic space. This model asks where occurrence, elevation, temperature, and precipitation align—and keeps model performance, future projections, and extrapolation risk together so suitability is not presented as certainty.
02
Field to evidence
Two connected parts of the work, with the material that supports each one.
Occurrence and climate
Herbarium occurrences, background locations, elevation, and climate predictors establish where the model has evidence to work with.
- cleaned occurrence set
- environmental predictor stack
- spatial thinning and background sample
Prediction and limits
Model performance, response curves, future-climate projections, and extrapolation checks are presented together so suitability is not mistaken for survival or certainty.
- AUC and response curves
- 2041–2070 projections
- MESS extrapolation review
03
Linked material
- 65 presences
- 9,837 background locations
- AUC 0.9488
- precipitation and warmest-month temperature